Alexander Mattison Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Alexander Mattison

NFL · Player Props

Alexander Mattison

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Alexander Mattison Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-106/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.83 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Alexander Mattison's pass-catching efficiency has been refined this year, notching 6.95 yards-per-target compared to a mere 5.95 figure last year.

Favors Under

The Vikings are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the NFL.
Alexander Mattison has put up a puny -2.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 13th percentile among RBs.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Alexander Mattison's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 83.5% to 72.3%.

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