Alexander Mattison Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Alexander Mattison

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Alexander Mattison Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+140/-180).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -170 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -180.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 6th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.8% pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Alexander Mattison has been among the leading RBs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging an impressive 8.46 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 76th percentile.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has displayed weak efficiency versus running backs since the start of last season, giving up 7.01 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 9th-most sluggish paced defense in football (in a neutral context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.66 seconds per snap.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in football.
Alexander Mattison has put up a measly 0.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 25th percentile among running backs.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.