Alexander Mattison Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Alexander Mattison

NFL · Player Props

Alexander Mattison

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Alexander Mattison Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1260/-5000).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.62 seconds per snap.
Alexander Mattison has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 10.3% this year, which ranks him in the 83rd percentile among running backs.
Alexander Mattison ranks in the 89th percentile among running backs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a terrific 0.20 per game.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has yielded the 10th-highest Completion% in football (83%) versus RBs this year (83.0%).
The Miami Dolphins defense has surrendered the 4th-most touchdowns through the air in the NFL to running backs: 0.40 per game this year.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
Alexander Mattison has totaled a meager -2.0 air yards per game this year: just 11th percentile among running backs.
Alexander Mattison's possession skills have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 83.6% to 74.4%.
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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