Alexander Mattison Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Alexander Mattison

NFL · Player Props

Alexander Mattison

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Carries

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Alexander Mattison Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Vikings are predicted by the predictive model to run 66.3 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.
The Green Bay Packers defensive ends profile as the 5th-worst collection of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings as the 5th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 37.7% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The Vikings have run the 9th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 56.1 plays per game.
The model projects Alexander Mattison to be a much smaller part of his offense's run game in this week's game (48.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (68.7% in games he has played).

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