Alexander Mattison Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Alexander Mattison

NFL · Player Props

Alexander Mattison

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Carries

Carolina Panthers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Alexander Mattison Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The projections expect this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 60.6 plays per game.
The Vikings have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to lead to lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions this week.
The projections expect Alexander Mattison to earn 14.6 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings as the 3rd-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 36.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects Alexander Mattison to be a much smaller piece of his offense's running game this week (60.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (78.0% in games he has played).
Panthers defensive ends rank as the 5th-best collection of DEs in the league since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

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