Alexander Mattison Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Alexander Mattison

NFL · Player Props

Alexander Mattison

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Carries

Philadelphia Eagles vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 15, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Alexander Mattison Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have run the 7th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 60.6 plays per game.
The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced pass game effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
THE BLITZ projects Alexander Mattison to accrue 14.3 rush attempts in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Alexander Mattison to be a more integral piece of his team's running game this week (63.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (19.9% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Vikings are a big 7-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 33.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackles project as the 2nd-best DT corps in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

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