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Alec Pierce

Alec Pierce Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

New York Giants vs Indianapolis Colts

Alec Pierce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+125/-155).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +140 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Colts to be the least pass-focused offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 51.8% pass rate.

The model projects the Colts to run the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.4 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.

As it relates to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Indianapolis Colts ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year.

This year, the porous New York Giants pass defense has been torched for a monstrous 67.7% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 8th-highest rate in football.

The New York Giants safeties rank as the 2nd-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Colts are a massive 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Colts this year (a mere 54.6 per game on average).

Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the New York Giants, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 29.1 per game) this year.

Alec Pierce has run fewer routes this season (83.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (94.1%).

Alec Pierce is positioned as one of the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL, catching a measly 50.7% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 6th percentile among wide receivers

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