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Alec Pierce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-170/+140).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +155 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +140.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Colts are underdogs in this week's contest, indicating more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.The model projects this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.5 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.The Denver Broncos defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (38.6 per game) this year.When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Indianapolis Colts ranks as the 5th-best in the league this year.This year, the poor Denver Broncos pass defense has been gouged for a staggering 68.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing WRs: the 8th-worst rate in the league.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Colts to pass on 48.9% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.The 2nd-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Colts this year (a mere 53.6 per game on average).The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.Alec Pierce has gone out for fewer passes this year (83.7% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (94.1%).Alec Pierce rates as one of the most unreliable receivers in the league, hauling in just 53.4% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 10th percentile among wide receivers
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