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Alec Pierce

Alec Pierce Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Indianapolis Colts vs Detroit Lions

Alec Pierce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-190/+155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -185 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +155.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Colts, who are giant -7-point underdogs.

The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Opposing teams have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.

Alec Pierce has been a less important option in his team's offense this year, staying on the field for just 80.7% of snaps vs 95.1% last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 55.3% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The 3rd-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Colts this year (a mere 54.3 per game on average).

This year, the fierce Lions defense has yielded a measly 62.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 10th-lowest rate in football.

As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Detroit's group of safeties has been very good this year, grading out as the best in the NFL.

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