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Alec Pierce

Alec Pierce Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills

Alec Pierce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +135 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A throwing game script is indicated by the Colts being a -4.5-point underdog in this game.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Opposing teams have averaged 35.3 pass attempts per game against the Bills defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.

As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all pass attack stats), the offensive line of the Indianapolis Colts grades out as the best in football this year.

Alec Pierce's sure-handedness have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 50.7% to 58.6%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the moment, the 2nd-least pass-focused team in football (55.3% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Indianapolis Colts.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Colts are projected by our trusted projection set to run just 61.2 total plays in this contest: the lowest number on the slate this week.

The Colts have called the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.2 plays per game.

Alec Pierce's 83.2% Route% this season indicates an impressive regression in his passing attack utilization over last season's 94.1% mark.

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