Alec Pierce Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Alec Pierce

NFL · Player Props

Alec Pierce

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Alec Pierce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+123/-162).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +133 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to see 129.4 offensive plays run: the 5th-highest number among all games this week.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 62.0 plays per game.
The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.
Alec Pierce has been used less as a potential target this season (92.9% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last season (73.2%).
The Indianapolis Colts O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Colts will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 3.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 56.4% pass rate.
Alec Pierce's sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 52.9% to 48.2%.

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