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Alec Pierce

Alec Pierce Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs

Alec Pierce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+119/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +127 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +119.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing teams have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.

THE BLITZ projects Alec Pierce to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass game this week (9.3% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.3% in games he has played).

The Indianapolis Colts offensive line has allowed their QB 2.63 seconds before the pass (9th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 59.8% pass rate.

The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks grade out as the 9th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

The Kansas City Chiefs defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the best in the league since the start of last season.

The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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