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Alec Pierce Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+150/-200).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +175 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +150.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Colts are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 63.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has conceded the highest Completion% in the NFL (75.8%) vs. wide receivers this year (75.8%).The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers profile as the worst group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 8th-most sluggish paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.70 seconds per play.The Indianapolis Colts offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.Alec Pierce has been among the most hard-handed receivers in football, hauling in a mere 61.3% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 25th percentile among wideoutsThe Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the league). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
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