|
|
Alec Pierce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (+110/-143).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 28.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ +110.
|
|
|
|
|
|
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
|
|
The model projects the Colts to run the 2nd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.The Colts have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 60.9 plays per game.This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.Alec Pierce has gone out for fewer passes this year (93.3% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (73.2%).Alec Pierce has garnered a colossal 27.0% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 84th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
|
|
|
|
|
|
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
|
|
The Colts boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).The predictive model expects the Colts as the 11th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Indianapolis Colts offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.Alec Pierce's possession skills have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 52.9% to 47.7%.Alec Pierce has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in football, averaging a measly 6.49 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 22nd percentile among wide receivers
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
