Alec Pierce Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Alec Pierce

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Alec Pierce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (+114/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 29.5 @ +114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Colts to run the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 8th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 60.3 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Alec Pierce has accounted for a colossal 25.6% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 80th percentile among wideouts.
The Houston Texans pass defense has struggled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.11 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Indianapolis Colts boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in football.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Alec Pierce has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL, catching a mere 51.4% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 1st percentile among WRs