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Alec Pierce

Alec Pierce Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 9

New England Patriots vs Indianapolis Colts

Alec Pierce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Indianapolis Colts will be forced to use backup QB Sam Ehlinger this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.

The Indianapolis Colts offense has played at the 9th-fastest pace in football (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 27.27 seconds per snap.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense this year: 4th-most in football.

Alec Pierce has compiled a monstrous 72.0 air yards per game this year: 83rd percentile among wide receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

The Indianapolis Colts O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

Alec Pierce has been among the worst wideouts in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 1st percentile.

The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (62.6%) vs. wideouts this year (62.6%).

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