Alec Pierce Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Alec Pierce

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Alec Pierce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Alec Pierce to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass game this week (9.3% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.3% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has surrendered the 6th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (162.0) versus wideouts since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 59.8% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks grade out as the 9th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the best in the league since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.