Alec Pierce Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Alec Pierce

NFL · Player Props

Alec Pierce

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Alec Pierce Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+432/-925).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -627 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -925.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a giant 11.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 7th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 60.2 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.

Favors Under

The Indianapolis Colts offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Alec Pierce has been among the most unreliable receivers in the league, catching just 52.3% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 1st percentile among WRs
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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