Alec Ingold Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Alec Ingold

NFL · Player Props

Alec Ingold

FB · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Alec Ingold Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-116/-111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -116.

Key Factors

Favors Over

When talking about air yards, Alec Ingold grades out in the towering 88th percentile among RBs this year, accruing a striking 2.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more impressive than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).
Alec Ingold's 83.3% Adjusted Catch% this year indicates an impressive progression in his receiving ability over last year's 72.4% mark.
Alec Ingold's 8.4 adjusted yards per target this year conveys a significant progression in his receiving skills over last year's 6.5 rate.
This year, the shaky Jets defense has surrendered the 4th-most yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing RBs: a staggering 7.66 YAC.

Favors Under

With a 7-point advantage, the Dolphins are a massive favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their normal approach.
The projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 11th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 56.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see only 127.5 offensive plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
The Dolphins have called the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 23-mph being projected in this game) generally mean worse passing efficiency, lower air volume, and increased run volume.

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