Alec Ingold Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Alec Ingold

NFL · Player Props

Alec Ingold

FB · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Tennessee Titans · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Alec Ingold Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Alec Ingold has notched a monstrous 2.0 air yards per game this year: 86th percentile among running backs. (That may not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs average negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Alec Ingold's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 72.4% to 82.1%.
Alec Ingold's 7.8 adjusted yards per target this season illustrates a noteable gain in his pass-catching skills over last season's 6.5 figure.
This year, the poor Titans defense has yielded the most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing RBs: a massive 6.76 yards.
This year, the porous Titans defense has surrendered the most yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing running backs: a massive 7.54 YAC.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a huge 13.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects the Dolphins as the 3rd-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to see just 127.4 total plays called: the lowest number among all games this week.
The Dolphins have run the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 54.8 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being projected in this game) generally cause lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and higher rush volume.

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