Alec Ingold Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Alec Ingold

FB · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2022

Updated Sep 30, 2022 12:05 AM UTC

Analysis

Alec Ingold Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The Dolphins have been the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 68.5% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.
Alec Ingold has put up a whopping 9.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 98th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Alec Ingold's 11.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 7.0.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Alec Ingold's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 80.7% to 56.5%.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has yielded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (58.4%) vs. RBs this year (58.4%).