Albert Okwuegbunam Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Albert Okwuegbunam

NFL · Player Props

Albert Okwuegbunam

TE · Denver Broncos

Receiving TD

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Albert Okwuegbunam Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+404/-867).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -855 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -867.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has surrendered the 8th-highest Completion% in the league (78%) vs. TEs this year (78.0%).
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has surrendered the 3rd-most touchdowns through the air in the league to tight ends: 0.60 per game since the start of last season.
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers profile as the 7th-worst group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Denver Broncos O-line has afforded their QB 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 58.4 plays per game.
Albert Okwuegbunam's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 81.7% to 66.9%.
The Denver Broncos have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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