A.J. Green Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

A.J. Green

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM EST

Analysis

A.J. Green Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+125/-170).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals offense as the 3rd-fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 26.67 seconds per play.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Seattle Seahawks linebackers profile as the 5th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Arizona Cardinals have incorporated play action on 30.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (6th-most in the league), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
A.J. Green has been a less important option in his team's passing game this year (10.1% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (17.1%).
A.J. Green's receiving skills have diminished this season, compiling just 1.9 yards per game compared to 3.1 last season.
A.J. Green's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 59.1% to 45.0%.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line has allowed their QB a mere 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing offense stats across the board.