A.J. Green Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Green

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 12:24 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Green Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-101/-128).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cardinals are a 6-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 10th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 128.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the 8th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 65.2 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

A.J. Green has been among the worst possession receivers in football, completing just 57.1% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 10th percentile among wideouts
The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks rank as the 7th-best unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the quickest in the league since the start of last season.
The Arizona Cardinals have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.