A.J. Green Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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A.J. Green

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Green

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs New Orleans Saints · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 21, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

A.J. Green Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (+125/-167).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 23.5 @ -167.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 130.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 68.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The New Orleans Saints defense has allowed the 9th-most receiving yards per game in the league (171.0) vs. wideouts this year.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has surrendered the 8th-highest Completion% in football (68.4%) versus wide receivers this year (68.4%).

Favors Under

A.J. Green has been much less involved in his offense's passing game this year (10.3% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (17.1%).
A.J. Green has accumulated quite a few less air yards this year (46.0 per game) than he did last year (72.0 per game).
A.J. Green has totaled quite a few less receiving yards per game (12.0) this year than he did last year (50.0).
A.J. Green's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 59.1% to 47.0%.
A.J. Green's pass-catching efficiency has diminished this year, totaling a measly 2.79 yards-per-target vs a 9.41 figure last year.

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