A.J. Green Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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A.J. Green

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Green

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Green Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals offense as the 3rd-fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 26.67 seconds per play.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has struggled when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, giving up an average of 6.48 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-most in the league.
The Seattle Seahawks linebackers profile as the 5th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
A.J. Green has been a less important option in his team's passing game this year (10.1% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (17.1%).
A.J. Green has accumulated far fewer air yards this year (48.0 per game) than he did last year (72.0 per game).
A.J. Green has accumulated substantially fewer receiving yards per game (13.0) this season than he did last season (50.0).
A.J. Green's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 59.1% to 45.0%.

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