A.J. Green Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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A.J. Green

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Green

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 26, 2022 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

A.J. Green Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals will be forced to start backup QB Trace McSorley in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Cardinals are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 138.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 62.6 plays per game.

Favors Under

A.J. Green has been much less involved in his offense's passing attack this season (8.6% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (16.7%).
A.J. Green has accumulated far fewer air yards this year (37.0 per game) than he did last year (71.0 per game).
A.J. Green has posted significantly fewer receiving yards per game (13.0) this season than he did last season (50.0).
A.J. Green's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 57.1% to 50.1%.
A.J. Green's pass-game effectiveness has tailed off this season, accumulating a mere 3.60 yards-per-target compared to a 9.06 figure last season.

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