A.J. Green Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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A.J. Green

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Green

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving TD

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Green Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+300/-400).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals offense as the 3rd-fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 26.67 seconds per play.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Seattle Seahawks linebackers profile as the 5th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Arizona Cardinals have incorporated play action on 30.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (6th-most in the league), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
A.J. Green has accumulated far fewer air yards this year (48.0 per game) than he did last year (72.0 per game).
A.J. Green's 27.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 45.0.
A.J. Green's ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 59.1% to 45.0%.
A.J. Green has not caught any touchdowns this year.

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