A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Denver Broncos vs Green Bay Packers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

As it relates to blocking for ball-carriers (and the influence it has on all run game metrics), the offensive line of the Packers profiles as the 6th-best in football last year.
Opposing teams have run for the most adjusted yards in the league (177 per game) against the Broncos defense this year.
As it relates to the safeties' role in defending against the run, Denver's unit has been terrible this year, grading out as the worst in the league. in the league.

Favors Under

At the moment, the 10th-least run-oriented offense in football (37.2% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Packers.
The leading projections forecast the Packers to run the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.8 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The Packers have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 52.2 plays per game.
Our trusted projections expect A.J. Dillon to be a much smaller part of his team's run game in this week's contest (39.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (59.6% in games he has played).
A.J. Dillon's 3.0 adjusted yards per carry this year indicates a a substantial drop-off in his rushing skills over last year's 4.2 rate.

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