A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 4, 2023

Updated Sep 29, 2023 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 37.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 33.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers O-line profiles as the 6th-best in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.
The Detroit Lions defense has had the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, giving up 5.02 yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Packers to be the 10th-least run-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 37.3% run rate.
The projections expect the Packers to run the 6th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers have run the 7th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 56.0 plays per game.
Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and reduced ground volume.
The model projects A.J. Dillon to be a much smaller part of his team's running game in this week's contest (39.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (55.6% in games he has played).

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