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A.J. Dillon

A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 17

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers

A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

In regards to blocking for ball-carriers (and the importance it has on all run game stats), the offensive line of the Green Bay Packers profiles as the 6th-best in football last year.

The Vikings linebackers project as the 2nd-worst unit in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Packers to run on 37.3% of their chances: the 3rd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

At the moment, the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Green Bay Packers.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

While A.J. Dillon has received 49.7% of his team's run game usage in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be much less involved in Green Bay's run game in this week's game at 29.0%.

A.J. Dillon's running effectiveness (3.50 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (15th percentile among RBs).

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