A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 1:26 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 46.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week, A.J. Dillon is anticipated by the projection model to land in the 85th percentile among RBs with 15.6 rush attempts.
The projections expect A.J. Dillon to be a more integral piece of his offense's running game in this game (62.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (50.4% in games he has played).
As it relates to run support (and the significance it has on all run game statistics), the O-line of the Packers profiles as the 6th-best in the NFL last year.
The Chiefs defense owns the 10th-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, giving up 4.58 adjusted yards-per-carry.
The Kansas City Chiefs safeties profile as the 31st-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

A passing game script is indicated by the Packers being a -5.5-point underdog in this game.
Our trusted projections expect the Packers as the 6th-least run-focused team on the slate this week with a 39.4% run rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Packers are predicted by the predictive model to call only 64.0 total plays in this contest: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The 8th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Packers this year (a lowly 55.5 per game on average).
A.J. Dillon's ground efficiency (3.49 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (12th percentile among running backs).

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