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A.J. Dillon
NFL · Player Props
A.J. Dillon
RB · Green Bay Packers
Rushing Yards
Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 11, 2023 Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC
NFL Props A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards

A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -130.

Favors Over
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to see 131.1 total plays called: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week.
  • The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in the NFL last year at blocking for the run game.
  • This year, the imposing Chargers run defense has yielded a mere 4.53 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition's run game: the 24th-smallest rate in the league.
  • When it comes to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Los Angeles's collection of DEs has been atrocious this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in the league. in the league.
Favors Under
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Packers are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach.
  • Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Green Bay Packers to run on 40.6% of their chances: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
  • The Green Bay Packers have run the 7th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 55.1 plays per game.
  • While A.J. Dillon has garnered 48.7% of his team's run game usage in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a much smaller piece of Green Bay's run game in this week's game at 36.0%.
  • With a lousy total of 3.70 adjusted yards per carry (20th percentile) this year, A.J. Dillon has been as one of the bottom pure runners in the league at the position.
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