A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

As it relates to run support (and the ramifications it has on all run game stats), the O-line of the Packers profiles as the 6th-best in football last year.
This year, the anemic Steelers run defense has been torched for a monstrous 132.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 6th-most in the NFL.
The Steelers defensive ends grade out as the 6th-worst DE corps in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates a throwing game script for the Packers, who are -3-point underdogs.
The projections expect the Packers to be the 9th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 40.6% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
With regard to a defense's influence on tempo, at 28.46 seconds per play, the leading projections forecast the Green Bay Packers to be the 9th-slowest in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now.
While A.J. Dillon has been responsible for 50.3% of his team's rushing play calls in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much smaller part of Green Bay's rushing attack in this contest at 31.9%.
A.J. Dillon's rushing effectiveness has declined this season, accumulating just 3.29 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 4.15 figure last season.

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