A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Washington Commanders vs Green Bay Packers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:31 PM EST

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-102/-128).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 44.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 44.5 @ -128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 61.5 plays per game.
A.J. Dillon has received 48.3% of his team's rush attempts this year, ranking in the 80th percentile among RBs.
The Green Bay Packers O-line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year at blocking for the run game.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 10th-most yards in football (132 per game) against the Washington Commanders defense this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 9th-least run-heavy team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 36.7% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
A.J. Dillon's running effectiveness (3.76 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (20th percentile among RBs).
A.J. Dillon has been among the bottom RBs in the NFL at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a mere 2.71 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 23rd percentile.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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