A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs New York Giants · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 4:30 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (-112/-116).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 53.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 53.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a heavy 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 8th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 43.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
A.J. Dillon has garnered 51.5% of his team's rush attempts this year, ranking in the 85th percentile among running backs.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in football this year at blocking for rushers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 4th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
A.J. Dillon's rushing effectiveness has worsened this year, notching a measly 3.65 yards-per-carry vs a 4.45 figure last year.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

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