A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 52.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Dillon to notch 13.4 carries in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile among running backs.
A.J. Dillon has received 52.2% of his offense's carries this year, ranking in the 85th percentile among running backs.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.
A.J. Dillon has picked up 46.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in the NFL among running backs (75th percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 9th-least run-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 36.9% run rate.
The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a measly 58.4 plays per game.
A.J. Dillon's ground efficiency has tailed off this season, averaging a measly 3.48 yards-per-carry vs a 4.45 rate last season.
The New England Patriots defensive tackles rank as the 5th-best unit in the league since the start of last season with their run defense.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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