A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 20, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (-140/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 45.5 @ -140 before it was bet up to 46.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
A.J. Dillon has earned 44.7% of his offense's carries this year, placing him in the 81st percentile among RBs.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in football this year at opening holes for runners.
The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box against opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Green Bay Packers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-most in the NFL), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 6th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 44.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 5th-least yards in the NFL (just 105 per game) vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.
The Los Angeles Rams safeties grade out as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in football this year in regard to stopping the run.

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