A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM EST

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 37.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 39.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 9th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 44.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
A.J. Dillon has received 42.9% of his offense's rush attempts this year, placing him in the 79th percentile among RBs.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in run blocking.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 59.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

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