A.J. Dillon Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing TD

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+326/-608).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +331 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +326.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a heavy 10.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
A.J. Dillon has garnered 45.0% of his team's red zone carries this year, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
The Green Bay Packers O-line grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year at run-game blocking.
Opposing offenses have run for the 2nd-most TDs in the league (1.71 per game) versus the Detroit Lions defense this year.
The Detroit Lions safeties project as the 29th-worst unit in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 8th-least run-heavy offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 39.3% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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