A.J. Dillon Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing TD

Green Bay Packers vs New York Jets · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+220/-300).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are an enormous 7.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
A.J. Dillon has earned 44.4% of his offense's red zone rush attempts this year, placing him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year in run blocking.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 4th-most TDs in the NFL (1.40 per game) vs. the New York Jets defense this year.
The New York Jets safeties project as the 27th-worst safety corps in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 8th-least run-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 40.2% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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