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A.J. Dillon

A.J. Dillon Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 4

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots

A.J. Dillon Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+181/-263).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +185 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +181.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Packers are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

A.J. Dillon has received 54.5% of his team's red zone carries this year, ranking him in the 87th percentile among RBs.

The Green Bay Packers offensive line grades out as the 8th-best in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.

A.J. Dillon has run for 0.29 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest figures in the NFL among RBs (76th percentile).

The Green Bay Packers have used some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the NFL), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 9th-least run-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 40.2% red zone run rate.

The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a measly 58.4 plays per game.

Opposing squads have run for the 2nd-least touchdowns in the league (0.50 per game) vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season.

The New England Patriots defensive tackles rank as the 5th-best unit in the league since the start of last season with their run defense.

The New England Patriots have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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