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A.J. Dillon

A.J. Dillon Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers

A.J. Dillon Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+200/-280).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A.J. Dillon has received 48.3% of his team's red zone carries since the start of last season, ranking in the 84th percentile among running backs.

The Green Bay Packers O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.

A.J. Dillon has run for 0.30 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest marks in the NFL among running backs (77th percentile).

The Green Bay Packers have utilized some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-most in football), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 7th-least run-heavy team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 39.6% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 119.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing offenses have run for the 3rd-least TDs in the league (0.58 per game) vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties project as the 2nd-best safety corps in football since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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