A.J. Dillon Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing TD

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+230/-330).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
A.J. Dillon has garnered 39.4% of his offense's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking in the 77th percentile among RBs.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in run blocking.
Opposing offenses have run for the most TDs in football (1.58 per game) vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year.
The Chicago Bears defensive tackles rank as the worst DT corps in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 5th-least run-oriented offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 39.1% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 59.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

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