A.J. Dillon Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing TD

Green Bay Packers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 18, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+258/-425).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +278 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +258.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
A.J. Dillon has received 46.2% of his offense's red zone rush attempts this year, putting him in the 83rd percentile among running backs.
The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year in run blocking.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Green Bay Packers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the NFL), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 4th-least run-oriented team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 38.7% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Packers to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have run for the least touchdowns in the NFL (0.22 per game) versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year.
The Tennessee Titans defensive ends rank as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

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