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A.J. Dillon

A.J. Dillon Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 1

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
A.J. Dillon Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+178/-257).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -256 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -257.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • A.J. Dillon has received 47.6% of his offense's red zone carries since the start of last season, putting him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
  • The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
  • The Green Bay Packers have utilized some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the league), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 5th-least run-centric offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 39.3% red zone run rate.
  • The Minnesota Vikings safeties grade out as the best unit in the league since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
  • The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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