A.J. Dillon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

New York Giants vs Green Bay Packers · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+120/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A.J. Dillon's 82.2% Adjusted Catch% this year illustrates a noteable growth in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 71.3% mark.
This year, the poor New York Giants pass defense has conceded a massive 88.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the highest rate in football.

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests a running game script for the Packers, who are favored by 5.5 points.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Green Bay Packers to pass on 57.2% of their plays: the 8th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Green Bay Packers are predicted by our trusted projection set to call just 63.9 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.
The Green Bay Packers have run the 7th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 55.9 plays per game.
The Giants safeties rank as the 4th-best safety corps in football this year in covering receivers.

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