A.J. Dillon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 31, 2022 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+100/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -132.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are a giant 10.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 67.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has given up the 8th-highest Completion% in football (86.1%) to running backs this year (86.1%).
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box against opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Packers to run the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
A.J. Dillon's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 92.2% to 72.6%.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the best unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the league). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.