A.J. Dillon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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A.J. Dillon

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM EST

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+145/-190).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -180 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -190.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New England Patriots pass defense has yielded the 9th-highest Completion% in the league (83.6%) versus running backs since the start of last season (83.6%).
The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers have used some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in the NFL), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

The Packers are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 11th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a measly 58.4 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.
A.J. Dillon's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 92.1% to 74.1%.

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