A.J. Dillon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

reorder

NFL · Player Props

A.J. Dillon

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

A.J. Dillon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+145/-190).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Dillon to notch 3.4 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has conceded the 8th-highest Completion% in the NFL (84.4%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (84.4%).
The Green Bay Packers have utilized some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their plays since the start of last season (6th-most in football), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 119.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
A.J. Dillon's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 92.1% to 77.1%.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the 4th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.